June 27, 2022

11:06

The federal government believes it will not have problems to approve the benefits that are being studied to be passed on to the population, such as the increase in the Brazil Allowance, the voucher for truck drivers, and the increase in the gas allowance. According to palace advisors, the latest conversations made with the presidents of the Senate and the House, besides ministers of the TSE, indicate that there would be no legal problems to grant the benefits. There is disagreement, however, about whether it would be necessary to publish a decree of state of emergency. The leader of the government in the Senate, Carlos Portinho, believes that a decree is not necessary. The political wing is confident that the measures that will inject money “in the vein” of the population most affected by the crisis will come out soon, because the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, has endorsed the proposals.

Populist Guedes

Guedes has hit the hammer on the increase in R$ 200, to R$ 600 per month, the value of the Brazil Allowance (former Family Allowance), and the launch of a R$ 1,000 trucker aid, baptized “Pix Trucker”, to compensate for the high price of diesel in Brazil. The minister also supports the idea of doubling the value of the gas allowance, currently at R$53. These three actions, with a total estimated cost of R$29 billion, are already being discussed with party leaders and come at a time when President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) is trying to improve his popularity to seek reelection. From an ultraliberal, Guedes has been converted into a fierce populist.

Concern with Cármen Lúcia

Although President Jair Bolsonaro’s suspicions of interference in the investigations that led to the arrest of former Education Minister Milton Ribeiro have great potential to impact the campaign, the Planalto’s main concern is with what may come from the Supreme Court. Although it might seem good, for having left the hands of the judge who ordered the arrest of Milton Ribeiro, the fact that the case went into the hands of Minister Cármen Lúcia brings concern because the government knows that she can come down hard on the president.

What’s to come

In Paraíba, where he is participating in the São João party in Campina Grande, Bolsonaro is really worried about what may still exist in the investigation. For this reason, he is waiting. One of the president’s interlocutors said that the opposition’s movement for the CPI is natural, but that they are still evaluating if Congress would have the breath to make a CPI when everyone is worried about their campaigns. The time has come to wait and see the extent of the damage, the impact on the government and the campaign, and what measures the Judiciary might adopt.

State Companies Act

The president of the House of Representatives, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), and leaders of the center right (Centrão) are waiting for the federal government to publish, until next week, a Provisional Measure to allow “updates” in the State Companies Law. Committed to changing the rules of contracting in the state companies, they understand that Congress has already acted enough in the fuel agenda and that now a signal from the Executive is missing. The MP would have immediate effect and its validity would coincide with the elections, which would leave the president of Petrobras in the crosshairs, if he does not act to contain new readjustments. The government is evaluating a way in which the changes in the command of the state-owned companies can be made in a more agile manner and avoid the situation of José Mauro Coelho, who was fired and, even so, remained in office.