February 14, 2022

14:02

Via Brasília – from Cenarium Magazine

Russia high risk

Despite news of the increasing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, President Jair Bolsonaro confirmed his trip to Moscow. A member of the delegation told the Via Brasilia column that the highlight will be the meeting between Bolsonaro and President Vladimir Putin, next Wednesday, February 16. The source says that the most rational wing of the government fears that the visit to Putin will send a message of support from Brazil to Russia, in the crisis that opposes the country to the United States and European countries, important trade partners. At a moment when entry into the OECD and an agreement with the European Union are in progress.

Agenda

In addition to stroking the leader of one of the world’s largest autocracies, the government also hopes to close deals in the military field and in fertilizer supply, since there is a shortage of the product in the international market that can affect Brazilian agriculture. Bolsonaro is seeking to gain the loyalty of agribusiness. It is worth remembering that with Russian interference and hackers, former president Donald Trump mounted a powerful guerrilla war in the networks and overcame Hilary Clinton in the 2016 U.S. presidential elections. Badly in the polls, easy to infer Bolsonaro, once again, will follow in the idol’s footsteps.

“Ultraconservative values”

The second stop on Bolsonaro’s trip to Europe will be to further his “ultraconservative values” in Hungary. The country has no commercial importance with Brazil, but, for the president, anything goes to animate his radical sect. The delegation will be received by Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a symbol of the extreme right that has been in power for 10 years. Bolsonaro will take the opportunity to find out how Orban managed to control the press, the judiciary, the parliament and the universities, the Planalto occupant’s golden dream.

Aras inactive

Everything indicates that the team of Attorney General Augusto Aras will follow the same path up to now, without any proactivity also in the 2022 elections. In the TSE Prosecutor’s Office, the intention is to wait to be provoked by the political parties to respond and act upon requests, evaluating case by case. Although, in all campaigns, acts of anticipated campaigning are commonplace and generate mild punishments, such as the payment of fines, an avalanche of actions against Bolsonaro has already arisen at the TSE.

Inflation and elections

The president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, updated the expectation that inflation will reach its peak. According to him, this should occur in April or May. The first round of the election is scheduled for October 2. Considering that inflation starts to fall in April, in the best case scenario, what matters for the voter is the feeling of loss of purchasing power, which should remain for some time. In other words, there is a risk that the fall in inflation will not yet be felt by the voter during the election. In the last 12 months, the IPCA reached 10.38% in January.