Polls point to Arthur Virgílio as the most likely to assume the only vacancy in the Senate for AM
June 1, 2022
08:06
Priscilla Peixoto – Cenarium Magazine
MANAUS – Surveys conducted in recent days point the pre-candidate Arthur Virgilio Neto (PSDB) as the most quoted name to occupy the only Senate seat for the state of Amazonas. According to data from the National Real Time Big Data Institute Arthur appears with 22% of voting intentions. With similar results, in the survey conducted by “Direto ao Ponto Pesquisas”, the pre-candidate appears with 25.3% of intentions.
In estimated research (when the interviewee is presented with options for candidates), Big Data shows that Arthur leaves behind names like Omar Aziz (PSD) and Colonel Menezes (PL), both with 16% of the quotes; Luiz Castro (PDT) with 10% and Chico Preto (Avante) with 7%.
According to data from quantitative research (collection of information of a numerical nature analyzed by statistical methods) conducted by the “Direto ao Ponto Pesquisas”, right after Arthur Virgilio Neto, the name of Omar Aziz (PSD) appears with 23%, followed by Colonel Menezes (PL) with 14.7% of intentions, Chico Preto (Avante) scoring 10.4% and Luiz Castro (PDT) cited with 5.5% of the vote.
Scenario
According to the “Straight to the Point Research” survey, Arthur appears to have an advantage in almost all electoral zones of the capital: North, Center-South, Center-West, West and East. The configuration changes only in the South Zone, in districts such as Betânia, Crespo, Japiim, Petrópolis, Centro, São Francisco and São Lázaro.
For the sociologist and political analyst Carlos Santiago, the preference for Arthur Virgílio’s name when the issue is the occupation of the Senate seat is due to the fact that Arthur has become a “national reference for his performance as a tribune of the National Congress”, besides his parliamentary performances.
“Senator Arthur Virgílio comes from a traditional family in Amazonian politics and has a national reference for his performance as a speaker of the National Congress. As a federal lawmaker and also as a senator of the Republic, Arthur has an image much more linked to the parliament than to the Executive, to public management, even because he has spent much more time of his life in the parliament than in municipal administrations,” considers the political analyst, who adds:
“Due to the family tradition, to the performance he has always had in the National Congress, as a government leader, as an opposition leader, an active and polemic parliamentarian, today he has positive indicators in the polls that have been published,” he says.
In relation to the clash with the pre-candidate Omar Aziz, the name closest to Arthur in relation to the percentage obtained in the polls, the professional considers that “Omar is very competitive, in fact, he won all the elections he contested with the help of public machinery of the time or his own condition of manager. But Arthur always had a lot of breath to dispute and also win elections and has already won, even elections without any official support, because he always had an image and a favorable narrative to his actions in the National Congress and tireless defender of the Free Trade Zone”, Santiago ponders.
According to journalist and political scientist Liege Albuquerque, although Arthur’s name is leading the polls before the election, it is necessary to ponder that in the political field everything can change. “I think that Arthur’s performance in defense of the Free Trade Zone is one of the factors that influences this, but we should not forget that other politicians also defend it, except for Colonel Menezes. Besides, the election is still far away and the clash between him and Omar is already expected”, Liege points out.
Methodology Data
The survey conducted by Real Time Big Data between May 27 and 28, focused on voters in the state of Amazonas with an average of 1,500 interviews. According to Big Data, the margin of error is 3 percentage points higher or lower with a confidence level of 95%.
The survey has as participants an average of 52% women and 48% men. Of these 18% are people between 16 and 24 years old, 24% between 25 and 34 years old, 23% between 35 and 44 years old, and 22% between 45 and 59 years old, ending with 13%, who are 60 years old or older.
The survey covers the cities of Manaus, Itacoatiara, Manacapuru, Iranduba, Autazes, Coari, Tefé, Parintins, Apuí, Lábrea, Boca do Acre, Tabatinga, Benjamim Constant, Eirunepé, Barcelos and São Gabriel da Cachoeira.
At Direto ao Ponto Surveys, 1,530 people were heard, 530 of them in the metropolitan region or interior (Rio Preto da Eva, Novo Airão, Manacapuru, Presidente Figueiredo, Itacoatiara, Autazes, Careiro, Careiro da Várzea and Iranduba). In the capital, 1,000 people were heard.
The margin of error of the survey, according to ‘Straight to the Point’, is 2.55% more or less, with a degree of reliability of 95.5%. The fieldwork was carried out between May 9th and 12th of this year.
Profile
Born in Manaus on November 15, 1945, Arthur Virgílio do Carmo Ribeiro is considered one of the most influential parliamentarians in Brazil. Diplomat and sociologist, Arthur is affiliated to the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) and president of the party in Amazonas.
Arthur Neto was elected mayor of Manaus three times, 1989 to 1993, in 2012 with 65.95% (603,483 votes), and 2016 with 55.96% (581,777) votes. The Amazonian passed through the General Secretariat of the Presidency of the Republic and also served as a federal deputy for Amazonas. From 2003 to 2011 he served as senator of the Republic for Amazonas.
Latest
