February 3, 2022

11:02

Priscilla Peixoto – Cenarium Magazine

MANAUS – What does the Brazilian do in front of a picture of uncertainty? Last Monday, 31, the economist from Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV) Anna Carolina Gouveia said that although the recent retreats in the Uncertainty Indicator of the Economy (IIE-Br) has pointed a stability, in January, when it varied -0.2 point to 122.1 points, the country is still far from the pre-pandemic level, when it reached 115 points.

According to Gouveia, the doubts that lead to the opposite reality experienced in January are basically the political scenario and the pandemic. “The slight drop in the IIE-Br was motivated entirely by the reduction in dispersion in the specialists’ forecasts for Brazilian economic variables. Going in the opposite direction, the media component registered an increase, influenced by noises such as the advance of the new variant of the coronavirus in the country and inflation. For the coming months, the Uncertainty Indicator should remain at a high level, given the economic and sanitary scenario”, said Anna Carolina, in a note published on FGV’s official website.

For the economist and business consultant Denise Kassama, the feeling of uncertainty generates negative impacts on the lives of people, companies, and families. In situations like this, she points out that there is usually a retraction in consumption and plans. “This is the moment when one rethinks plans to change cars, buy real estate, or change the refrigerator. This retraction demotivates the industry, which starts to produce less and generate fewer jobs. Investment is reduced and the economy doesn’t grow”, explains the economist.

According to FVG, in a way, the future of the indicator depends on factors related to Covid-19 coupled with the election period, a time when there is uneasiness in the political scenario, which affects economic activity. In addition, Denise Kassama warns that the absence of effective public policies to combat it contributes to the indicator of uncertainty continuing at high levels.

“Given the scenario presented, we understand that the year 2022 will be a difficult year in the search for economic recovery. Gradually, with the pandemic being controlled, the inconstancy becomes a little less”, says the professional, who questions.

“The uncertainty indicator can also negatively influence the attraction of foreign investments, as is the case of the Manaus Free Trade Zone, after all, who is safe in investing in this scenario of high degree of uncertainty?”, she asks.